The Arithmetic of Vaccination

A 3 min.read !

The average number of vaccine doses given per day right since the beginning works out to about 23 lakh.This is a figure that needs immense appreciation relative to the much acclaimed 200 million doses by Biden in the first 100 days of his tenure which is an average of 20 lakh doses per day though way behind an average of 2 crore doses per day delivered in China for a week at a stretch !

Though vaccination has been tardy right since the beginning, in the last couple of months it gathered pace and has been in good swing. Right since January 16 the day on which it began the nation had given about 42 crore doses so far. This works out to an average of about 23 lakh doses per day since the beginning.The average number of doses per day turned out to be about 40 lakhs in June.Unfortunately for some reasons not so specific,there has been no consistency in this number over the last few days of this month. Assuming that 40 lakh doses per day are administered in the remaining 12 days of this month,it would add up to another 5 crore doses.

Responding to the pointed questions of the apex court on the vaccine policy, the GOI filed an affidavit where in it was disclosed that it would make 135 crore doses available between August and December 2021.The breakup of the proposed 135 crores consists of 50 crores of Covishield vaccine,40 crores of Covaxin; 30 crores of Bio E Subunit vaccine; 5 crores of Zydus Cadila DNA vaccine and 10 crores of Sputnik V vaccine. If this turns out to be true the total number by then would be 42 crores +5 crores +135 crores crore=182 crore doses.In other words these would be enough to fully vaccinate  (both doses) 70% of 130 crore people in our country. This is indeed going to be a commendable accomplishment in a nation of our size and scale.However,the number falls shorter by about 6 crore to fully vaccinate all the adults ( those above 18 who are abut 94 crore in number) but by no means an issue of major concern as it can be made up with a little more effort.But the inconsistency in the last few days in the number of shots delivered per day leads to some doubts as regards the probability of this achievement.

Globally, more than 3.65 billion (365 crore) vaccine doses have been administered  by July 18 equal to 48 doses for every 100 people.The global pattern reveals striking anomalies in achieving the onerous task driven by factors like lack of adequate resources, fears and phobias.illiteracy, poverty and wealth inequality.There is a lot of gap between the principles and practises by the rich nations in extending the needed assistance and making a timely outreach to the underprivileged nations.The fact that Covax programme had delivered 90 million ( 9 crore) doses to 131 countries is a grim reminder of this indifference and apathy.forgetting the very basic dictum that “ NO ONE IS SAFE UNLESS EVERY ONE IS SAFE” ! !

On a continental level, only 59 million ( ~6crore) doses have been administered so far in Africa-less than 5% of the population when some of the nations in the continent are already under the brunt of the third wave.

With fears of a third wave lurking in the minds, people moving and mingling among masses throwing caution to wind and the body blow delivered on multiple fronts by the second wave staring at us and concerns of economy,unemployment and inflation calling for urgent remedial measures, the only potential weapon to fight against  is vaccination much of the success of which depends upon the extent of gap between the promise and performance ! !

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